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    Assessment of death risk of breast cancer patients with joint frailty models
    (SAUDI MED J, 2020) Pasin, Özge; Dirican, Ahmet; Ankarali, Handan; Dişçi, Rian; Karanlık, Hasan
    Objectives: To investigate the effects of risk factors on recurrence and death in breast cancer patients, taking into account the dependence between recurrence and death as well as the heterogeneity among individuals. The other aim of this study was to make predictions of death risks with a dynamic model that includes patient's history and different horizons. Methods: The data of 465 patients who had undergone surgery at the Istanbul University Oncology Institute, Istanbul, Turkey, between 2009 and 2016 were used. For data analysis in this retrospective study, the authors applied the joint frailty model, and the predictions were obtained using dynamic prediction methods that consider the patient's history. The Brier score was used to evaluate the accuracy of the estimations. Results: A positive relationship was found between recurrence and death, and heterogeneity was found among patients (p<0.001, p=1.008, p=2.945). The effects of Cerb-B2, tumor type, remaining lymph nodes, neoadjuvant chemotherapy, and surgery type were statistically significant for death and recurrence (p<0.05, relative risk [death, recurrence] = [2.5, 11.86], [2.065, 2.798], [1.852, 3.113], [4.211, 9.366], [1.521,1.991]). The Brier score values used in the evaluation of the predictions obtained by the dynamic prediction methods were found to be below 0.30. Conclusion: The use of joint frailty models is recommended for the detection of heterogeneity effects and dependence between recurrence and death. Through models in survival analysis, researchers can obtain more accurate parameter estimates. A significant variance of frailty indicates different death risks for the same characteristics.
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    Prospective analysis of febrile neutropenia patients with bacteraemia: the results of an international ID-IRI study
    (Elsevier, 2023) Erdem, Hakan; Kocoglu, Esra; Ankarali, Handan; El-Sokkary, Rehab; Hakamifard, Atousa; Karaali, Ridvan; Kulzhanova, Sholpan
    Objectives: Bacteraemia during the course of neutropenia is often fatal. We aimed to identify factors predicting mortality to have an insight into better clinical management.Methods: The study has a prospective, observational design using pooled data from febrile neutropenia patients with bacteraemia in 41 centres in 16 countries. Polymicrobial bacteraemias were excluded. It was performed through the Infectious Diseases-International Research Initiative platform between 17 March 2021 and June 2021. Univariate analysis followed by a multivariate binary logistic regression model was used to determine independent predictors of 30-d in-hospital mortality (sensitivity, 81.2%; specificity, 65%). Results: A total of 431 patients were enrolled, and 85 (19.7%) died. Haematological malignancies were detected in 361 (83.7%) patients. Escherichia coli (n = 117, 27.1%), Klebsiellae (n = 95, 22% %), Pseudomonadaceae (n = 63, 14.6%), Coagulase-negative Staphylococci (n = 57, 13.2%), Staphylococcus aureus (n = 30, 7%), and Enterococci (n = 21, 4.9%) were the common pathogens. Meropenem and piperacillin-tazobactam susceptibility, among the isolated pathogens, were only 66.1% and 53.6%, respectively. Pulse rate (odds ratio [OR], 1.018; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.002-1.034), quick SOFA score (OR, 2.857; 95% CI, 2.120- 3.851), inappropriate antimicrobial treatment (OR, 1.774; 95% CI, 1.011-3.851), Gram-negative bacteraemia (OR, 2.894; 95% CI, 1.437-5.825), bacteraemia of non-urinary origin (OR, 11.262; 95% CI, 1.368-92.720), and advancing age (OR, 1.017; 95% CI, 1.001-1.034) were independent predictors of mortality. Bacteraemia in our neutropenic patient population had distinctive characteristics. The severity of infection and the way to control it with appropriate antimicrobials, and local epidemiological data, came forward. Conclusions: Local antibiotic susceptibility profiles should be integrated into therapeutic recommendations, and infection control and prevention measures should be prioritised in this era of rapidly increasing antibiotic resistance.& COPY; 2023 Elsevier Ltd and International Society of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy. All rights reserved.