Evidence-based managerial decision-making with machine learning: The case of Bayesian inference in aviation incidents

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dc.authoridDelen, Dursun/0000-0001-8857-5148;
dc.authorwosidDelen, Dursun/AGA-9892-2022
dc.authorwosidTopuz, Kazim/K-8287-2014
dc.contributor.authorCankaya, Burak
dc.contributor.authorTopuz, Kazim
dc.contributor.authorDelen, Dursun
dc.contributor.authorGlassman, Aaron
dc.date.accessioned2024-05-19T14:40:42Z
dc.date.available2024-05-19T14:40:42Z
dc.date.issued2023
dc.departmentİstinye Üniversitesien_US
dc.description.abstractUnderstanding the factors behind aviation incidents is essential, not only because of the lethality of the accidents but also the incidents' direct and indirect economic impact. Even minor incidents trigger sig-nificant economic damage and create disruptions to aviation operations. It is crucial to investigate these incidents to understand the underlying reasons and hence, reduce the risk associated with physical and financial safety in a precarious industry like aviation. The findings may provide decision-makers with a causally accurate means of investigating the topic while untangling the difficulties concerning the statisti-cal associations and causal effects. This research aims to identify the significant variables and their prob-abilistic dependencies/relationships determining the degree of aircraft damage. The value and the contri-bution of this study include (1) developing a fully automatic ML prediction-based DSS for aircraft damage severity, (2) conducting a deep network analysis of affinity between predicting variables using probabilis-tic graphical modeling (PGM), and (3) implementing a user-friendly dashboard to interpret the business insight coming from the design and development of the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). By leveraging a large, real-world dataset, the proposed methodology captures the probability-based interrelations among air terminal, flight, flight crew, and air-vehicle-related characteristics as explanatory variables, thereby re-vealing the underlying, complex interactions in accident severity. This research contributes significantly to the current body of knowledge by defining and proving a methodology for automatically categoriz-ing aircraft damage severity based on flight, aircraft, and PIC (pilot in command) information. Moreover, the study combines the findings of the Bayesian Belief Networks with decades of aviation expertise of the subject matter expert, drawing and explaining the association map to find the root causes of the problems and accident relayed variables. & COPY; 2023 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.omega.2023.102906
dc.identifier.issn0305-0483
dc.identifier.issn1873-5274
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85161295310en_US
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ1en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org10.1016/j.omega.2023.102906
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12713/5003
dc.identifier.volume120en_US
dc.identifier.wosWOS:001054551500001en_US
dc.identifier.wosqualityN/Aen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Scienceen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopusen_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherPergamon-Elsevier Science Ltden_US
dc.relation.ispartofOmega-International Journal of Management Scienceen_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessen_US
dc.snmz20240519_kaen_US
dc.subjectDecision Support Systemsen_US
dc.subjectBusiness Analyticsen_US
dc.subjectBig Dataen_US
dc.subjectAviation Incidentsen_US
dc.subjectBayesian Belief Networksen_US
dc.titleEvidence-based managerial decision-making with machine learning: The case of Bayesian inference in aviation incidentsen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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