Modeling of COVID-19 outbreak in Gaza Strip using SEIR model
Küçük Resim Yok
Tarih
2023
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
Özet
The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is a major global health threat that was spreading very quickly around the world. Many mathematical models are being formulated to study the spread of COVID-19 and to predict its evolution, in order to help mitigating future outbreaks. The Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model is considered a prevalent model that describes various diseases outbreaks including COVID-19. The model divides the individuals into four groups; susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered. To predict the evolution of the pandemic using the SEIR model, we first estimate the parameters as well as initial conditions. In this work, we model the spreading of COVID-19 pandemic using the SEIR in Gaza Strip to identify the better fitting model for forecasting future spread. The data required for estimation was collected between March 1st, 2021 and December 31st, 2021. The simulation results using SEIR model showed a significant model fitting, as there is no considerable difference from the real data compared to the respective model values. We also study the severity of the pandemic by identifying two important parameters; the basic reproduction rate (Ro), which determines the speed of the spread of COVID-19; and the infection fatality ratio (IFR) which estimates the proportion of deaths among all infected individuals. We obtained a value of Ro = 0. 89. IFR value is ranged between 0.079% and 0.085%, which is less than the global average of about 0.15%. © 2023 IEEE.
Açıklama
2023 International Conference on Computer Science, Information Technology and Engineering, ICCoSITE 2023 -- 16 February 2023 -- -- 188965
Anahtar Kelimeler
Covıd-19, İnfection Fatality Ratio, Predictive Modeling, Reproduction Rate, Seır
Kaynak
ICCoSITE 2023 - International Conference on Computer Science, Information Technology and Engineering: Digital Transformation Strategy in Facing the VUCA and TUNA Era
WoS Q Değeri
Scopus Q Değeri
N/A
