Modeling of COVID-19 outbreak in Gaza Strip using SEIR model

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dc.contributor.authorRadwan, A.M.
dc.contributor.authorMortaja, W.
dc.contributor.authorAlzaq, H.
dc.date.accessioned2024-05-19T14:33:44Z
dc.date.available2024-05-19T14:33:44Z
dc.date.issued2023
dc.departmentİstinye Üniversitesien_US
dc.description2023 International Conference on Computer Science, Information Technology and Engineering, ICCoSITE 2023 -- 16 February 2023 -- -- 188965en_US
dc.description.abstractThe novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is a major global health threat that was spreading very quickly around the world. Many mathematical models are being formulated to study the spread of COVID-19 and to predict its evolution, in order to help mitigating future outbreaks. The Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model is considered a prevalent model that describes various diseases outbreaks including COVID-19. The model divides the individuals into four groups; susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered. To predict the evolution of the pandemic using the SEIR model, we first estimate the parameters as well as initial conditions. In this work, we model the spreading of COVID-19 pandemic using the SEIR in Gaza Strip to identify the better fitting model for forecasting future spread. The data required for estimation was collected between March 1st, 2021 and December 31st, 2021. The simulation results using SEIR model showed a significant model fitting, as there is no considerable difference from the real data compared to the respective model values. We also study the severity of the pandemic by identifying two important parameters; the basic reproduction rate (Ro), which determines the speed of the spread of COVID-19; and the infection fatality ratio (IFR) which estimates the proportion of deaths among all infected individuals. We obtained a value of Ro = 0. 89. IFR value is ranged between 0.079% and 0.085%, which is less than the global average of about 0.15%. © 2023 IEEE.en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1109/ICCoSITE57641.2023.10127789
dc.identifier.endpage1001en_US
dc.identifier.isbn9798350320954
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85163078702en_US
dc.identifier.scopusqualityN/Aen_US
dc.identifier.startpage998en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1109/ICCoSITE57641.2023.10127789
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12713/4323
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopusen_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.en_US
dc.relation.ispartofICCoSITE 2023 - International Conference on Computer Science, Information Technology and Engineering: Digital Transformation Strategy in Facing the VUCA and TUNA Eraen_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryKonferans Öğesi - Uluslararası - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccessen_US
dc.snmz20240519_kaen_US
dc.subjectCovıd-19en_US
dc.subjectİnfection Fatality Ratioen_US
dc.subjectPredictive Modelingen_US
dc.subjectReproduction Rateen_US
dc.subjectSeıren_US
dc.titleModeling of COVID-19 outbreak in Gaza Strip using SEIR modelen_US
dc.typeConference Objecten_US

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